Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF
Likeliest: Kolding IF win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kolding IF44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Vendsyssel FF28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kolding IF
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Hobro (A)1-1
- Sep 18 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Fredericia (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v AB (H)2-1
Vendsyssel FF
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v HB Køge (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at AaB (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Randers FC (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Vejle (A)1-4
| Last 10 games | Kolding IF | Vendsyssel FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.