Premier League (Ukraine) · Fri, Sep 11 · 12:30 · Kolos Kovalivka vs Karpaty Lviv
Likeliest: Kolos Kovalivka win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 33%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kolos Kovalivka42%33%+9
OursMarket
Draw28%29%−2
OursMarket
Karpaty Lviv30%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 67% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 46% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kolos Kovalivka
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)1-2
- Jul 31 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)0-2
- May 21 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)1-0
Karpaty Lviv
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Bukovyna Chernivtsi (H)3-0
- Aug 10 · v LNZ Cherkasy (H)3-0
- Aug 1 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Kolos Kovalivka | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.