1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Kongsvinger vs Ranheim IL
Likeliest: Kongsvinger win · 64%
Likely score: 3–1
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kongsvinger64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Ranheim IL18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 94% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 81% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | 75% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.5 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kongsvinger
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 5 · at Moss FK (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Hødd IL (H)5-1
- Sep 16 · at Eidsvold Turn (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · at Egersund (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Raufoss (H)9-1
Ranheim IL
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 2 · v Egersund (H)5-0
- Sep 20 · at Lyn FK (A)4-1
- Sep 16 · at Levanger (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Åsane (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Kongsvinger | Ranheim IL |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-1 | 3-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.