1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Kongsvinger vs Sandnes Ulf
Likeliest: Kongsvinger win · 73%
Likely score: 3–1
We make it 74% for both teams to score. The market says 65%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kongsvinger73%70%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
Sandnes Ulf12%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 93% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 74% | 65% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 30% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kongsvinger
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 14 · at Strømsgodset (A)1-5
- Oct 11 · v Ranheim IL (H)6-2
- Oct 5 · at Moss FK (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Hødd IL (H)5-1
- Sep 16 · at Eidsvold Turn (A)3-2
Sandnes Ulf
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Stabæk Fotball (A)1-4
- Oct 11 · v Haugesund (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Strømmen IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v Moss FK (H)1-2
- Sep 16 · at Arendal (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Kongsvinger | Sandnes Ulf |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.