Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Aug 22 · 18:00 · Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Likeliest: Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 30%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring61%30%+31
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−7
OursMarket
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen18%42%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 58% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 70% | −31 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 42% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Aug 15 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)0-3
- Apr 17 · v KSC Lokeren (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at OC Charleroi (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v Royal Francs Borains (H)0-2
- Mar 21 · at RWDM Brussels (A)1-1
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 15 · v RSCA Futures U23 (H)2-1
- Apr 27 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)2-3
- Apr 23 · v K. Beerschot V.A. (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · v Royal Francs Borains (H)4-0
- Apr 5 · at RFC Seraing (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring | Patro Eisden Maasmechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.