Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Sep 6 · 14:00 · Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring vs RFC Liège
Likeliest: Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 37%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring51%37%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−3
OursMarket
RFC Liège26%36%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 64% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 63% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 51% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 30 · at RFC Seraing (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)0-3
- Apr 17 · v KSC Lokeren (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at OC Charleroi (A)1-0
RFC Liège
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Aug 29 · v FCV Dender (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Jong KRC Genk U23 (A)3-2
- Aug 17 · v Royal Francs Borains (H)1-2
- Apr 27 · v Lommel SK (H)1-2
- Apr 23 · at Lommel SK (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring | RFC Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.