Challenger Pro League (Belgium) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring vs Royal Francs Borains
Likeliest: Royal Francs Borains win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring29%33%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Royal Francs Borains41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 27 · at Union Rochefortoise (A)2-3
- Sep 11 · at K. Beerschot V.A. (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v RFC Liège (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at RFC Seraing (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (H)2-1
Royal Francs Borains
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 26 · at Koninklijke Diegem Sport (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v RSCA Futures U23 (H)3-2
- Sep 6 · v KSC Lokeren-Temse (H)3-0
- Aug 30 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Koninklijke Sporting Hasselt (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring | Royal Francs Borains |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.