3rd Division, Group 1 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Konnerud IL vs Asker
Likeliest: Asker win · 49%
A 25% home win. The market says 6%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Konnerud IL25%6%+19
OursMarket
Draw26%11%+15
OursMarket
Asker49%83%−33
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 81% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 17% | +33 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 94% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 89% | −15 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 34% | 7% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Konnerud IL
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Lokomotiv Oslo (A)2-3
- Oct 3 · v Heming (H)5-5
- Sep 26 · v KFUM Oslo II (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Frigg (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Grei (H)3-2
Asker
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · v Frigg (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · v Bærum SK (H)4-2
- Oct 3 · at Grei (A)3-4
- Sep 26 · v Nordstrand (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Konnerud IL | Asker |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 4-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.