Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 11 · 10:30 · Konyaspor vs Başakşehir FK
Likeliest: Başakşehir FK win · 37%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Konyaspor34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Başakşehir FK37%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Konyaspor
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 30 · v Palestine (H)2-2
- Sep 18 · at Kasımpaşa (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Trabzonspor (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Erzurumspor FK (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Kocaelispor (H)1-2
Başakşehir FK
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)4-0
- Sep 13 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)0-5
- Sep 4 · v Galatasaray (H)2-3
- Aug 30 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Trabzonspor (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Konyaspor | Başakşehir FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.