Super Lig (Turkey) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · Konyaspor vs Gençlerbirliği
Likeliest: Konyaspor win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Konyaspor51%51%+1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Gençlerbirliği21%23%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Konyaspor
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Başakşehir FK (H)0-0
- Sep 30 · v Palestine (H)2-2
- Sep 18 · at Kasımpaşa (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Trabzonspor (H)1-0
Gençlerbirliği
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Galatasaray (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Başakşehir FK (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Kasımpaşa (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Trabzonspor (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Konyaspor | Gençlerbirliği |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.