Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · KR Reykjavík vs Breidablik Kópavogur
Likeliest: KR Reykjavík win · 65%
Likely score: 3–1
A 65% home win. The market says 61%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KR Reykjavík65%61%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%18%−3
OursMarket
Breidablik Kópavogur20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 85% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 79% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 82% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.2 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KR Reykjavík
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Keflavík IF (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v ÍA Akranes (H)5-1
- Sep 6 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-3
Breidablik Kópavogur
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Víkingur Reykjavík (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Keflavík IF (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at ÍA Akranes (A)1-4
- Sep 15 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · at KA Akureyri (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | KR Reykjavík | Breidablik Kópavogur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.