Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:00 · KRC Genk vs KAA Gent
Likeliest: KRC Genk win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KRC Genk46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
KAA Gent25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KRC Genk
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v SK Beveren (H)4-0
- Aug 22 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · v KVC Westerlo (H)3-2
- Aug 9 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)1-2
KAA Gent
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 6 · at Cercle Brugge (A)3-0
- Sep 3 · v Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · v Club Brugge KV (H)2-1
- Aug 27 · at Hibernian (A)3-2
- Aug 20 · v Hibernian (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | KRC Genk | KAA Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-1 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.