Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:45 · KRC Genk vs SK Beveren
Likeliest: SK Beveren win · 39%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KRC Genk37%64%−27
OursMarket
Draw24%21%+3
OursMarket
SK Beveren39%15%+24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 61% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 85% | −24 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 36% | +27 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 79% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 81% | −32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KRC Genk
DrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 22 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · v KVC Westerlo (H)3-2
- Aug 9 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)1-2
- May 31 · at KAA Gent (A)0-0
SK Beveren
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at SV Zulte Waregem (A)0-4
- Aug 16 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)1-0
- Aug 9 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)1-2
- Apr 17 · at RFC Seraing (A)2-1
- Apr 11 · v KV Kortrijk (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | KRC Genk | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 80% |
| Both teams scored | — | 50% |
| Clean sheets | — | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.