Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:30 · KRC Genk vs Standard Liège
Likeliest: KRC Genk win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KRC Genk55%54%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Standard Liège20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KRC Genk
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Royal Excelsior Virton (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v KV Kortrijk (H)3-0
- Sep 20 · at Club Brugge KV (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v KAA Gent (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-0
Standard Liège
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 16 · v FCV Dender (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · v RC Sporting Charleroi (H)0-1
- Sep 18 · at KAA Gent (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at KVC Westerlo (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | KRC Genk | Standard Liège |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.