Eliteserien (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Kristiansund BK vs Aalesunds FK
Likeliest: Kristiansund BK win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kristiansund BK39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
Aalesunds FK39%36%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 64% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kristiansund BK
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Rosenborg BK (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Brattvåg (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Viking FK (A)1-8
- Sep 6 · v Tromsø IL (H)2-0
Aalesunds FK
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Sarpsborg 08 (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Molde FK (A)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Førde (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · at KFUM Oslo (A)1-2
- Sep 4 · v IK Start (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Kristiansund BK | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.