Eliteserien (Norway) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Kristiansund BK vs KFUM Oslo
Likeliest: Kristiansund BK win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kristiansund BK39%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
KFUM Oslo33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kristiansund BK
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Aalesunds FK (H)1-4
- Oct 10 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Rosenborg BK (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · at Brattvåg (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at Viking FK (A)1-8
KFUM Oslo
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Tromsø IL (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · v Vålerenga IF (H)2-1
- Sep 30 · at Hønefoss BK (A)2-0
- Sep 18 · at Sarpsborg 08 (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Aalesunds FK (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Kristiansund BK | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.