Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:00 · KTP vs HJK Klubi 04
Likeliest: KTP win · 48%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 37% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KTP48%51%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
HJK Klubi 0426%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 68% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KTP
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-4
- Sep 25 · v MP (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at PK-35 (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v JäPS (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)2-0
HJK Klubi 04
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v EIF (H)7-0
- Sep 26 · v JäPS (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at FC Haka (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v KäPa (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | KTP | HJK Klubi 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.