Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 11 · 15:30 · KTP vs JäPS
Likeliest: KTP win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KTP71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%19%−2
OursMarket
JäPS13%14%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KTP
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v FC Haka (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at EIF (A)1-0
- Aug 15 · v KäPa (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)1-0
JäPS
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 6 · at SJK Akatemia (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v KäPa (H)0-0
- Aug 21 · at PK-35 (A)0-3
- Aug 14 · v FC Haka (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · v MP (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | KTP | JäPS |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.