Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 15:30 · KTP vs MP
Likeliest: KTP win · 68%
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KTP68%65%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
MP14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KTP
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at PK-35 (A)3-0
- Sep 11 · v JäPS (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · v FC Haka (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at EIF (A)1-0
MP
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v Jippo Joensuu (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SJK Akatemia (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at FC Haka (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v PK-35 (H)0-3
- Aug 22 · at HJK Klubi 04 (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | KTP | MP |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.