Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Sep 20 · 10:00 · Kudrivka vs Kolos Kovalivka
Likeliest: Kolos Kovalivka win · 41%
A 34% draw. The market says 29%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kudrivka25%26%−1
OursMarket
Draw34%29%+5
OursMarket
Kolos Kovalivka41%45%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 38% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 37% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kudrivka
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 4 · at Polissya Zhytomyr (A)1-5
- Aug 29 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · at FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (A)0-0
- Aug 3 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)1-5
Kolos Kovalivka
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 11 · v Karpaty Lviv (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · at FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)0-0
- Aug 16 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)1-2
- Jul 31 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Kudrivka | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.