Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Thu, Oct 8 · 16:00 · KuPS vs AC Oulu
Likeliest: KuPS win · 60%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KuPS60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
AC Oulu16%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KuPS
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 19 · at VPS (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v HJK (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)1-0
AC Oulu
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v Inter Turku (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · v IF Gnistan (H)1-2
- Sep 8 · at VPS (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v SJK (H)0-0
- Aug 22 · at FF Jaro (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | KuPS | AC Oulu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.