Veikkausliiga (Finland) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 · KuPS vs HJK
Likeliest: KuPS win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KuPS43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
HJK30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KuPS
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 8 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Aug 27 · v Shamrock Rovers (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v IFK Mariehamn (H)2-4
- Aug 20 · at Shamrock Rovers (A)1-1
HJK
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Inter Turku (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Ilves (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · v IF Gnistan (H)2-3
- Aug 16 · v FF Jaro (H)3-0
- Aug 13 · at Motherwell (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | KuPS | HJK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.