Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · KuPS vs Trabzonspor
Likeliest: Trabzonspor win · 66%
Likely score: 0–1
A 66% away win. The market says 62%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KuPS12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Trabzonspor66%62%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KuPS
DrawDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 11 · at Inter Turku (A)0-1
- Oct 8 · v AC Oulu (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at VPS (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v HJK (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at IF Gnistan (A)1-1
Trabzonspor
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Samsunspor (A)3-0
- Sep 19 · v Galatasaray (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · at Konyaspor (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Gençlerbirliği (H)5-0
- Aug 31 · at Amed Sportif Faaliyetler (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | KuPS | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.