Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:45 · KV Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen
Likeliest: KV Kortrijk win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KV Kortrijk38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−3
OursMarket
KV Mechelen37%34%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KV Kortrijk
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at KRC Genk (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · at KSK Heist (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v SK Beveren (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)0-3
- Sep 6 · v SV Zulte Waregem (H)0-2
KV Mechelen
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · v KAS Eupen (H)5-1
- Oct 11 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)4-3
- Sep 19 · at Lommel SK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | KV Kortrijk | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.