Belgian Cup (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:30 · KV Mechelen vs KAS Eupen
Likeliest: KV Mechelen win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 43% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KV Mechelen49%56%−7
OursMarket
Draw26%22%+5
OursMarket
KAS Eupen25%23%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 44% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KV Mechelen
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 11 · v Sint-Truidense VV (H)4-3
- Sep 19 · at Lommel SK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-4
- Aug 29 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-2
KAS Eupen
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · at RSCA Futures U23 (A)2-0
- Sep 27 · at KFC Merelbeke (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v RFC Liège (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Club NXT U23 (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | KV Mechelen | KAS Eupen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.