Pro League (Belgium) · Fri, Sep 11 · 18:45 · KV Mechelen vs RSC Anderlecht
Likeliest: RSC Anderlecht win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KV Mechelen22%24%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
RSC Anderlecht49%50%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 33% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KV Mechelen
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-4
- Aug 29 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · at RC Sporting Charleroi (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v Standard Liège (H)3-3
- Aug 9 · at KAA Gent (A)0-2
RSC Anderlecht
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 6 · v KRC Genk (H)0-0
- Sep 3 · v KV Kortrijk (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-3
- Aug 27 · v Kairat (H)3-0
- Aug 20 · at Kairat (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | KV Mechelen | RSC Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-2-4 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.