Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:15 · KV Mechelen vs Sint-Truidense VV
Likeliest: Sint-Truidense VV win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
KV Mechelen28%29%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Sint-Truidense VV46%45%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
KV Mechelen
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 19 · at Lommel SK (A)0-0
- Sep 11 · v RSC Anderlecht (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-4
- Aug 29 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · at RC Sporting Charleroi (A)0-2
Sint-Truidense VV
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 20 · v KVC Westerlo (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at SK Beveren (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v RAAL La Louvière (H)4-0
- Sep 2 · v Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (H)0-3
- Aug 30 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | KV Mechelen | Sint-Truidense VV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.