Emperor Cup (Japan) · Wed, Sep 23 · 08:00 · Kyoto Sanga FC vs Fujieda MYFC
Likeliest: Kyoto Sanga FC win · 44%
A 33% away win. The market says 19%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kyoto Sanga FC44%58%−14
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Fujieda MYFC33%19%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 81% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 42% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 75% | −18 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kyoto Sanga FC
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)1-1
Fujieda MYFC
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 19 · v RB Omiya Ardija (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
- Sep 5 · v Vanraure Hachinohe (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Kataller Toyama (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Albirex Niigata (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Kyoto Sanga FC | Fujieda MYFC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.