J-League (Japan) · Wed, Oct 21 · 10:00 · Kyoto Sanga FC vs Kashima Antlers
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 53%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 53% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kyoto Sanga FC20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Kashima Antlers53%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kyoto Sanga FC
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-3
- Oct 13 · v Ratchaburi (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · v Machida Zelvia (H)0-1
- Sep 23 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-1
Kashima Antlers
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v V-Varen Nagasaki (H)2-0
- Oct 13 · at Công An Hà Nội (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Kyoto Sanga FC | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.