J-League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 10 · 10:00 · Kyoto Sanga FC vs Machida Zelvia
Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 51%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Kyoto Sanga FC22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Machida Zelvia51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Kyoto Sanga FC
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 23 · v Fujieda MYFC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fagiano Okayama (A)2-1
- Sep 15 · at Daejeon Hana Citizen (A)0-1
- Sep 11 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-2
Machida Zelvia
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 23 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-4
- Sep 17 · v Svay Rieng FC (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Nagoya Grampus (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Kyoto Sanga FC | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-6 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.