Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:30 · LA Galaxy vs San Diego FC
Likeliest: LA Galaxy win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LA Galaxy40%46%−6
OursMarket
Draw29%25%+3
OursMarket
San Diego FC32%29%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 61% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LA Galaxy
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Portland Timbers (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at St.Louis City (A)2-6
- Sep 27 · v Colorado Rapids (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Minnesota United (A)3-2
- Sep 13 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)1-1
San Diego FC
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Oct 15 · v Houston Dynamo (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · at New York Red Bulls (A)1-4
- Sep 27 · at Austin FC (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Philadelphia Union (H)0-5
| Last 10 games | LA Galaxy | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.