Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Lamontville Golden Arrows vs Kaizer Chiefs
Likeliest: Kaizer Chiefs win · 47%
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lamontville Golden Arrows20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw34%31%+3
OursMarket
Kaizer Chiefs47%46%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 39% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 42% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lamontville Golden Arrows
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Sep 13 · at Siwelele FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Stellenbosch (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · at TS Galaxy (A)0-0
- Aug 12 · at Durban City FC (A)0-0
Kaizer Chiefs
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Polokwane City (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-2
- Aug 26 · at Richards Bay FC (A)2-2
- Aug 15 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-1
- Aug 12 · v Sekhukhune United (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Lamontville Golden Arrows | Kaizer Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.