Premier Division (South Africa) · Sun, Sep 6 · 13:00 · Lamontville Golden Arrows vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Likeliest: Mamelodi Sundowns win · 41%
A 33% home win. The market says 15%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lamontville Golden Arrows33%15%+17
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Mamelodi Sundowns41%60%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 42% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 40% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 85% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 21% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lamontville Golden Arrows
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Aug 26 · v Stellenbosch (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · at TS Galaxy (A)0-0
- Aug 12 · at Durban City FC (A)0-0
- Aug 1 · v Chippa United (H)0-0
- May 23 · v TS Galaxy (H)0-0
Mamelodi Sundowns
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 2 · v Milford FC (H)2-0
- Aug 26 · v AmaZulu FC (H)5-2
- Aug 19 · v Marumo Gallants FC (H)2-0
- Aug 15 · at Kaizer Chiefs (A)1-1
- Aug 11 · at TS Galaxy (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Lamontville Golden Arrows | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-7-0 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.