Premier Division (South Africa) · Sat, Oct 17 · 13:30 · Lamontville Golden Arrows vs Milford FC
Likeliest: Lamontville Golden Arrows win · 46%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lamontville Golden Arrows46%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Milford FC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lamontville Golden Arrows
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · v Kaizer Chiefs (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Siwelele FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Mamelodi Sundowns (H)1-2
- Aug 26 · v Stellenbosch (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · at TS Galaxy (A)0-0
Milford FC
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Durban City FC (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Richards Bay FC (H)5-0
- Sep 5 · at Chippa United (A)0-0
- Sep 2 · at Mamelodi Sundowns (A)0-2
- Aug 26 · at Polokwane City (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lamontville Golden Arrows | Milford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-7-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.