Superettan (Sweden) · Tue, Sep 15 · 17:00 · Landskrona vs GIF Sundsvall
Likeliest: Landskrona win · 66%
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Landskrona66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
GIF Sundsvall15%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Landskrona
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 9 · v Helsingborg (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Norrby IF (A)3-1
- Aug 29 · v Östersunds FK (H)1-1
- Aug 24 · at Värnamo (A)1-1
- Aug 20 · at Hässleholms IF (A)0-0
GIF Sundsvall
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 10 · v Örebro (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at IK Brage (A)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Norrby IF (H)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Östers IF (A)0-1
- Aug 19 · at FBK Karlstad (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Landskrona | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 2-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.