Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Nov 3 · 18:00 · Lanús Reserve vs Atletico Rafaela Reserve
Likeliest: Lanús Reserve win · 66%
Likely scores: 2–0 15% · 1–0 12% · 1–1 11%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lanús Reserve66%64%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Atletico Rafaela Reserve13%15%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 81% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lanús Reserve
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 27 · at Platense Reserve (A)3-1
- Oct 21 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)4-1
- Oct 14 · at Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (A)4-4
- Oct 8 · v Central Cordoba Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 1 · at San Martin Reserve (A)2-0
Atletico Rafaela Reserve
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 27 · v Newell's Old Boys Reserve (H)2-2
- Oct 20 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Huracán Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Lanús Reserve | Atletico Rafaela Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-0 | 0-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.