Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 8 · 18:00 · Lanús Reserve vs Central Cordoba Reserve
Likeliest: Lanús Reserve win · 59%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lanús Reserve59%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Central Cordoba Reserve17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lanús Reserve
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 1 · at San Martin Reserve (A)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Banfield Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (H)3-3
- Sep 10 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)1-4
- Sep 1 · v Belgrano Reserve (H)3-1
Central Cordoba Reserve
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Sep 30 · v Newell's Old Boys Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Atlético Tucumán Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 15 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)3-2
- Sep 9 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-2
- Sep 3 · at Huracán Reserve (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Lanús Reserve | Central Cordoba Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.