Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 21 · 18:00 · Lanús Reserve vs Quilmes Reserve
Likeliest: Lanús Reserve win · 61%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Lanús Reserve61%——
OursMarket
Draw24%——
OursMarket
Quilmes Reserve15%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lanús Reserve
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 14 · at Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (A)4-4
- Oct 8 · v Central Cordoba Reserve (H)3-0
- Oct 1 · at San Martin Reserve (A)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Banfield Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · v Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve (H)3-3
Quilmes Reserve
LossWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 13 · v Newell's Old Boys Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Defensa y Justicia Reserve (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Aldosivi Reserve (A)1-0
- Sep 16 · at Huracán Reserve (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Lanús Reserve | Quilmes Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.