Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Mon, Oct 12 · 19:00 · Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield
Likeliest: Lanús win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lanús40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw39%35%+3
OursMarket
Vélez Sarsfield22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 35% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lanús
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)0-0
- Sep 22 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Deportivo Riestra (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v Defensa y Justicia (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Boca Juniors (A)0-1
Vélez Sarsfield
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 5 · v Platense (H)2-2
- Sep 21 · v Tigre (H)3-2
- Sep 11 · at Newell's Old Boys (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · v Boca Juniors (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lanús | Vélez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-7-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.