Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 27 · 19:00 · Larne FC vs Lincoln Red Imps
Likeliest: Larne FC win · 63%
We make it 66% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Larne FC63%47%+15
OursMarket
Draw21%26%−5
OursMarket
Lincoln Red Imps16%27%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 51% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 73% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 53% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 74% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 64% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Larne FC
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 20 · at Lincoln Red Imps (A)2-0
- Aug 11 · at FC Iberia 1999 (A)1-1
- Aug 4 · v FC Iberia 1999 (H)0-0
- Jul 29 · at FK Crvena zvezda (A)0-5
- Jul 21 · v FK Crvena zvezda (H)0-4
Lincoln Red Imps
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Aug 20 · v Larne FC (H)0-2
- Aug 13 · at Omonia Nicosia (A)0-1
- Aug 6 · v Omonia Nicosia (H)1-1
- Jul 28 · v Mjällby AIF (H)0-0
- Jul 21 · at Mjällby AIF (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Larne FC | Lincoln Red Imps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.