NIFL Premiership (Northern Ireland) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Larne FC vs Linfield FC
Likeliest: Larne FC win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Larne FC49%50%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Linfield FC23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Larne FC
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · v Coleraine FC (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Crusaders FC (A)3-0
- Aug 27 · v Lincoln Red Imps (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · at Lincoln Red Imps (A)2-0
- Aug 11 · at FC Iberia 1999 (A)1-1
Linfield FC
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Carrick Rangers (A)2-2
- Oct 10 · v Bangor FC (H)2-0
- Sep 25 · at Coleraine FC (A)3-1
- Jul 16 · v Nõmme Kalju (H)2-2
- Jul 9 · at Nõmme Kalju (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Larne FC | Linfield FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.