La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:00 · Las Palmas vs CD Castellón
Likeliest: CD Castellón win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas24%27%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
CD Castellón50%48%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 37% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at Mallorca (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Eibar (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
CD Castellón
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v AD Ceuta (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Leganés (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v CD Tenerife (H)5-0
- Sep 12 · at Girona FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | CD Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-0-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.