La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Jun 7 · 19:00 · Las Palmas vs Málaga
Likeliest: Málaga win · 41%
A 41% away win. The market says 26%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas34%46%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Málaga41%26%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 74% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 54% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 64% | −19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
WinLossWinDrawWin
- May 31 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)2-1
- May 24 · v Real Zaragoza (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Almería (A)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 3 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
Málaga
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- May 31 · at Real Zaragoza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Racing Santander (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Ceuta (A)4-1
- May 9 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.