La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad B
Likeliest: Las Palmas win · 53%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Real Sociedad B22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v CD Castellón (H)0-3
- Oct 11 · at Mallorca (A)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Eibar (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-2
Real Sociedad B
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Almería (H)2-4
- Oct 10 · at Celta Vigo B (A)1-4
- Oct 4 · v Granada (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at AD Ceuta (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.