La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 3 · 19:00 · Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Las Palmas win · 60%
A 60% home win. The market says 50%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas60%50%+10
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Real Valladolid18%23%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 46% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 77% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 69% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 27 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
- Apr 17 · v Leganés (H)2-0
- Apr 11 · at Málaga (A)0-2
- Apr 5 · v Huesca (H)2-1
- Apr 2 · v Granada (H)2-0
Real Valladolid
WinLossDrawLossWin
- Apr 25 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
- Apr 13 · v SD Eibar (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · v Cádiz (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.