La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 4 · 16:30 · Las Palmas vs Real Valladolid
Likeliest: Las Palmas win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Real Valladolid27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 27 · at Eibar (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Leganés (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Girona FC (A)2-5
Real Valladolid
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 27 · v Córdoba (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at AD Ceuta (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · v FC Andorra (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Cádiz (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.