La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 24 · 16:30 · Las Palmas vs Real Zaragoza
Likeliest: Las Palmas win · 52%
A 26% away win. The market says 14%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Palmas52%65%−14
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
Real Zaragoza26%14%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 86% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 35% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 83% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Palmas
WinWinWinLossWin
- May 16 · at Almería (A)2-1
- May 10 · at FC Andorra (A)1-5
- May 3 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-1
- Apr 27 · at Cádiz (A)2-1
- Apr 17 · v Leganés (H)2-0
Real Zaragoza
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 17 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-3
- May 9 · at Real Valladolid (A)0-2
- May 1 · v Granada (H)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Huesca (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Ceuta (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Las Palmas | Real Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.