USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 02:30 · Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington SC
Likeliest: Lexington SC win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Las Vegas Lights27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Lexington SC47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 40% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Las Vegas Lights
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Phoenix Rising FC (A)2-3
- Oct 4 · v San Antonio FC (H)1-0
- Oct 1 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Hartford Athletic (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Orange County SC (A)2-0
Lexington SC
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v FC Tulsa (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)3-1
- Sep 27 · at Monterey Bay FC (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Orange County SC (H)6-0
- Sep 13 · at Oakland Roots SC (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Las Vegas Lights | Lexington SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.