Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 14 · 16:45 · LASK vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 82%
Likely score: 1–2
A 82% away win. The market says 77%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LASK5%9%−3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Liverpool82%77%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 19% | 23% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 95% | 91% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 6% | 10% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LASK
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-3
- Sep 13 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-2
- Sep 8 · at AEK Athens (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Wolfsberger AC (A)3-1
Liverpool
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Bournemouth (A)1-0
- Sep 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Atletico Madrid (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | LASK | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.