Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · LASK vs Red Bull Salzburg
Likeliest: LASK win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LASK43%44%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Red Bull Salzburg33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LASK
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)4-0
- Oct 14 · v Liverpool (H)3-6
- Oct 11 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at TSV Hartberg (A)3-3
- Sep 13 · at SK Sturm Graz (A)1-2
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 18 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)3-0
- Oct 15 · v AC Milan (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | LASK | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-4-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.